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India Macroeconomic Monitor

India Macroeconomic Indicators & Policy Rates

Compiled from official publications of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), GSTN, Office of the Economic Adviser, and Ministry of Commerce & Industry. Explore all 28 domestic indicators below or switch to Global Macroeconomic Benchmarks (9).

Macro Climate Scorecard

Real Policy Rate
-0.04%
Repo (5.5%) minus CPI (5.54%)
5.50%
Calibrated tightening, first hike since Feb 2023
5.54%
RBI Target: 4.0% (±2%)
721.016 $ billion
GST: 203521.0 ₹ crore gross

All Domestic Economic Indicators (28)

MONTHLY · INFLATION Highest this year, nearing RBI 6% ceiling

CPI Inflation

Period: September 2026

5.54 % y-o-y (+0.71 pp MoM)

Target/Anchor: RBI inflation target: 4% ±2%

Year-on-year change in retail prices across a national basket of goods and services, the RBI's primary policy anchor. Base year 2024=100.

MONTHLY · INFLATION Series high, double-digit wholesale inflation

WPI Inflation

Period: September 2026

11.39 % y-o-y (+1.47 pp MoM)

Target/Anchor: No official WPI target

Year-on-year change in wholesale prices of goods, an early signal of input-cost pressure feeding into retail inflation. Base year 2022-23.

MONTHLY · FISCAL Strong revenue momentum

GST Collections (Gross)

Period: September 2026

203521.0 ₹ crore gross (+14.7% YoY)

Target/Anchor: MacroNest anchor: double-digit YoY growth

Gross Goods and Services Tax collected in the month, reflecting the previous month's business activity. A high-frequency proxy for domestic demand and formal-sector activity.

MONTHLY · REAL ECONOMY Expansion, seven-month high

Manufacturing PMI

Period: September 2026

55.1 index (+2.3 index pts MoM)

Target/Anchor: 50 = no change threshold

Survey-based index of factory activity. Readings above 50 signal expansion versus the previous month; the level indicates the pace of change, not output volume.

MONTHLY · REAL ECONOMY Expansion, stronger momentum

Services PMI

Period: September 2026

55.8 index (+1.7 index pts MoM)

Target/Anchor: 50 = no change threshold

Survey-based index of services-sector activity, India's largest output segment. Above 50 signals month-on-month expansion.

MONTHLY · REAL ECONOMY Strong expansion, accelerating

Index of Industrial Production

Period: August 2026

8.0 % y-o-y (+0.6 pp MoM)

Target/Anchor: MacroNest anchor: sustained growth above 4%

Year-on-year growth in industrial output across mining, manufacturing, electricity and water supply. Index level was 123.3 in the reference month.

MONTHLY · REAL ECONOMY Series-high acceleration

Core Sector Output (Index of Core Industries)

Period: September 2026

7.9 % y-o-y (+2.0 pp MoM)

Target/Anchor: MacroNest anchor: growth above 4%

Combined output growth of nine core infrastructure industries (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement, electricity and iron ore), which carry a large share of the IIP weight. Base year 2022-23.

WEEKLY · EXTERNAL Sixth straight weekly fall

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Period: Week ended 16 Oct 2026

721.016 $ billion (-$5.011 billion WoW)

Target/Anchor: Adequate import cover >10 months

Total RBI-held foreign currency assets, gold, SDRs and IMF reserve position. The buffer available to absorb external shocks and smooth rupee volatility.

FORTNIGHTLY · MONETARY Moderating from recent high

Money Supply (M3)

Period: Fortnight ended 15 Oct 2026

16.0 % y-o-y (-0.9 pp fortnight-on-fortnight)

Target/Anchor: No official M3 target

Broad money: currency with the public plus bank deposits and other deposits with the RBI. Rapid growth can signal liquidity build-up ahead of price pressure.

FORTNIGHTLY · MONETARY Easing after September surge

Bank Credit Growth

Period: Fortnight ended 15 Oct 2026

18.2 % y-o-y (-1.2 pp fortnight-on-fortnight)

Target/Anchor: MacroNest anchor: credit growth aligned with deposit growth

Year-on-year growth in outstanding credit of scheduled commercial banks, a direct read on transmission of monetary policy into the real economy.

FORTNIGHTLY · MONETARY Moderating, still firm

Bank Deposit Growth

Period: Fortnight ended 15 Oct 2026

16.7 % y-o-y (-1.1 pp fortnight-on-fortnight)

Target/Anchor: MacroNest anchor: deposit growth keeping pace with credit

Year-on-year growth in aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks, the funding base for bank lending.

MPC · MONETARY Calibrated tightening, first hike since Feb 2023

RBI Repo Rate

Period: 63rd MPC meeting, 5-7 Oct 2026

5.50 % (+0.25 pp (hike))

Target/Anchor: RBI inflation target: 4% ±2%

The rate at which the RBI lends overnight to banks against government securities. The benchmark policy rate that anchors all other lending rates in the system.

QUARTERLY · REAL ECONOMY Strong, above RBI projection

Real GDP Growth

Period: Q1 FY2026-27

7.8 % y-o-y (+0.9 pp vs year-ago quarter)

Target/Anchor: RBI Q1 FY27 projection: 7.0%

Year-on-year growth in real gross domestic product at constant 2022-23 prices. The headline measure of aggregate economic output.

DAILY · MARKETS Snapped two-day rally, below 22,900

Nifty 50

Period: 2026-10-19

22888.95 index (-1.11% DoD)

Target/Anchor: No official target

Closing level of the NSE's 50-stock benchmark index, the standard gauge of large-cap Indian equity performance.

DAILY · MARKETS Snapped two-day rally

BSE Sensex

Period: 2026-10-19

73852.90 index (-1.17% DoD)

Target/Anchor: No official target

Closing level of the BSE's 30-stock benchmark index, the longest-running headline gauge of Indian equity market sentiment.

DAILY · MARKETS Volatility rising, near 15

India VIX

Period: 2026-10-19

14.77 index (+5.05% DoD)

Target/Anchor: MacroNest anchor: below 15 indicates calm markets

Expected 30-day volatility of the Nifty 50 implied by index option prices. Lower readings indicate calmer expectations, higher readings signal stress.

MONTHLY · EMPLOYMENT Easing labour market slack

Unemployment Rate

Period: August 2026

5.0 % (-0.1 pp MoM)

Target/Anchor: MacroNest anchor: below 5% headline UR

Share of the labour force aged 15 and above that is unemployed, measured on the Current Weekly Status basis in the monthly PLFS bulletin.

DAILY · INFLATION Easing, ~90% above year-ago

Essential Commodity: Onion

Period: 2026-10-20

51.93 ₹ per kg (-2.3% WoW (+89.5% YoY))

Target/Anchor: MacroNest anchor: early warning for food inflation

All-India average daily retail price of onion across DCA reporting centres. Prices remain nearly double a year ago, a key driver of September food inflation of 7.74%, though weekly prices are easing with kharif arrivals and buffer sales at ₹35/kg.

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